This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Minnesota. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. There are only 14 more seats remaining so there will not be far more time to be eligible if you are attempting to. I will try to receive my 3rd chair this week to max it if I could. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he’ll be a money match play of mine personally. There are far better fights to target if we’re on the lookout for 1st round knockouts but I will be focusing more on those in GPPs. I like the ground and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is why he is the cash play of this week. I don’t think Moret has got the ability to actually examine the chin of Gordon’s that has appeared to be his biggest weakness recently. With the speed Gordon sets I think he has 100+ upside in a decision win and I really don’t see him getting finished here so he ought to have a good floor. I think his flooring in a win is likely 80+ as well which is totally fine for money games. This is a catchy feeble, however this is my personal preferred money game spot of this week.
GPP play of the week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I had to go with Ngannou here. When he wins it is probably that a 1st round knockout. That is +100 about the betting line. If he gets that 1st round KO, he then scores over 100 DK points and in his 8.8k salary which will put him on the 25k lineup. He’ll be quite chalky this week though so make sure you load him up if you are multi-entering if you would like to find leverage within the field. I do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I’ll be targeting both sides of the fight, but I do observe 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here which could beat a lot of the fighters priced above him.
Underdog play of this week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week since I am not picking any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only man who would be considered an underdog I do believe will win and I did pick him put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we’re getting him for $200 less than Greene but I would not be surprised if Albini was the favored on the gambling line going into the fights. With these men being Heavyweights, it does not take much to acquire a knockout and should Albini can do this at $8k he could give me a rush at the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her previous fight also and she burned me scoring a 1st round submission. I am going back into the fade though and trusting the same doesn’t happen. On a card where I am choosing basically every favorite, I’d rather pick the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her 8.5k price label. I am not certain that going to the floor is at her best interest in this struggle and when she stays standing I do not see her paying off value in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I’d be taking some shots on Whitmire, however that I will likely only make ~20 and that I won’t make my player pool with this many lineups.
Thanks for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you Want my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 83-52 to get +251.89u (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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